Summary
Two possible localities were identified and evaluated for the establishment of an integrated cassava based stockfeed industry which grows the crop and manufactures cassava pellets. The localities considered were: South east Queensland, around Bundaberg/Maryborough - the location of the initial foray into commercial cassava cultivation for industrial starch and ethanol; and The top end of the Northern Territory.
This study shows that the best bet factory gate price of cassava pellets, considering fixed and variable costs plus 20% return on capital( $6.769 million) before tax, would be: $218/tonne in the top end of Northern Territory; $267/tonne in SE Queensland. These estimates have been based on the following key assumptions: Whole plantation irrigated; Total plantation area of 1,000 ha of which 400 is planted/harvested each year but as a biennial crop has 800 ha under crop at the commencement of the harvest season each year; An integrated growing/processing business structure; Seasonal average yields of a biennially harvested crop, of underground cassava plant parts of 92 tonne FW/ha for the NT and 63 tonne FW/ha for SE Queensland; Growing/harvesting/processing season of 36 weeks and 24 weeks respectively for the NT and Queensland respectively; For the NT, annual fresh weight cassava underground plant part production of 36,800 mt from which 16,394 mt of cassava pellets would be manufactured; for SE Queensland, fresh weight production of 25,200 mt to yield 11,227 mt of pellets; Totally mechanised plantation operation; Processing based on use of furnace oil as power source for dehydration. In the Northern Territory, cassava pellets at $218/tonne would appear to be competitive against feedgrain, which, in the main commands a premium of $140/tonne over SE Queensland prices. In the current year of low feedgrain prices, grain delivered to the top end of the NT is $260/tonne indicating a margin of $42/tonne in favour of cassava. In most years a premium above this would apply.
The market is, however, small and a cassava factory producing 11,000 tonnes of pellets per year would rely on all intensive livestock industries incorporating some cassava pellets into their ration. Our preliminary analysis suggests there may be a market for 5,000 t in the poultry and dairy industry if it was used to substitute 30% of the grain ration. The other potential market is as an energy spike for low grade locally manufactured hay cubes used for the live export market. Both local product and southern lucerne-based product presently supply this market. The size of this market will depend upon how competitive the energy-enhanced locally produced cube is against the cubes imported from southern Australia and the size of the future live export market. At the present depressed live cattle export levels, the market for a cassava flour, or pellets, as an energy enhancer of local hay cubes would be only 2,300 t assuming 75% of the boat market being supplied from locally produced hay cubes. With a return to live export numbers of 450,000 per year ex Darwin, the cassava pellet market, based on 75% supply from local cubes, could rise to around 7,000 t.
It is concluded that, given the recovery of the live cattle export market, there is good market potential for an energy dense feedstuff produced from cassava in the top end of NT. At $267/tonne, cassava pellets produced in south east Queensland would not be competitive with feedgrain in any year. The feedgrain price over the past decade in SE Queensland has ranged from around $110/tonne to $240/tonne at feedlot gate. At $267/tonne, ex cassava factory, cassava pellets could not compete with feedgrain, even in the worst case scenario for feedgrain price. Given freight rates to feedlot-gate are likely to be $10 to $30/tonne the competitive position of cassava pellets is further diminished with the present geographic disposition of feedlots in SE Queensland. The conclusion is reached that cassava as an energy dense feedstuff for the intensive livestock industry is unlikely to be viable in this region.
There are some uncertainties that could enhance or depress the prospect of a new cassava based feedstock industry in the top end of the Northern Territory. These are: Yield assumptions may be depressed by termite attack, particularly for a biennial harvest program, and agronomic solutions to this problem need to be found; On the other hand, yield assumptions used here are based on the previous standard variety (M Aus 7) which are conservative relative to the yields which were achieved from new cultivar selections (e.g. ACP444 - 25 to 50% higher) in the late 1980's; A satisfactory array of superior cultivars exist in Australia but often in small quantity (e.g. single plant) and it is estimated that it would take up to 4 years to multiply this planting material to enable 400 ha to be planted; The availability of land with reliable irrigation potential in the Daly/Katherine region was not investigated in the field by this study and qualifies the basic assumptions made here; Specialised machinery for mechanised cassava farming developed by Australian Cassava Plantations Pty Ltd during the 1980's solved the key problems, but this machinery no longer exists and would have to be rebuilt from scratch; no documented specifications or plans exist for these machines and its re-development would depend on the knowledge and experience of the very few people who were involved in its original development; A purpose-built processor for the manufacture of cassava pellets from mechanically harvested cassava roots has not been developed to our knowledge anywhere in the world and further development would be required; Application of new drying technology (e.g. refrigeration dehydrators or low grade heat) which is now being applied in a raft of other primary industries has the potential to greatly reduce the processing cost; it has been suggested that the cost of drying by oil burning (as assumed in this study) could be reduced by 50%, or $10/tonne; the establishment of a viable cassava based stockfeed industry would necessarily apply such technology; Feedgrain substitution by cassava in rations for intensive livestock feeding has to also add protein because of cassava's extremely low protein level - the Cost analysis of cassava as a feedgrain substitution will be determined by the parallel cost of supplying substitute protein;
Cassava plant tops are high in protein (albeit with some qualification as to its feeding value) and offer a prospect of being harvested as a feedstock for protein meal production where the plant is not deciduous in the dry season - there is some prospect that this could improve the Cost analysis of a cassava based industry in the NT but detailed development of this concept needs to be carried out. It is concluded that cassava as a source of an energy dense stockfeed looks promising in the top end of the Northern Territory where the climatic conditions are optimum for its growth, where the opportunity cost of alternative energy dense feedstuffs is high and where there is a limited but, adequate market for the product. Environmental concerns are minimal for an integrated irrigation structure whereby effluent water from the processing operation can be returned to the field and, because of irrigation, the plant can be planted and established before the onset of severe, erosion causing storms. It is proposed that, while there remains some unfinished R&D on cassava as a energy dense feedstuff for the intensive livestock industry in the top end of the NT, the most likely scenario to progress this proposition to fruition would be a joint venture between perhaps the Northern Territory Government and a private sector feed manufacturer to fill the few remaining knowledge gaps as a precursor to a full scale commercial venture.
