Planning weathers climate variability

Planning is key to managing the increasing climate variability expected over the coming decades, but for many producers, adaptability is already second nature.  

New research from WA is exploring practical steps sheep producers can take to stay resilient.  

The three-year FutureSheep project set out to understand what conditions sheep producers in WA can expect heading towards 2050, and how these conditions might impact their farming systems.   

To build projections, biophysical and economic modelling, combined with case studies, were used in three key sheep-producing regions (Kojonup, Wagin and Merredin) to identify potential adaptations for projected hotter and drier climates in 2030 and 2050. 

Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development (DPIRRD) WA senior research scientist Dr Kevin Foster emphasised the importance of focusing on the challenges of WA's Mediterranean climate with its wet winters and dry summers. 

“Our producers are already skilled at managing seasonal variability and have been doing it for a long time, especially in the lower rainfall zones (LRZ), but that variability will increase in years to come,” he said.

The impact of climate change

The FutureSheep team modelled future climate scenarios based on both moderate and high greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions and how they would affect different sheep producing regions of WA.  

“WA is a big state with different agricultural zones, so we can’t assume climate change projections will impact uniformly across our farming systems,” Kevin said.  

The modelling suggests lower stocking rates and less water security will be likely outcomes for low and medium rainfall zones (MRZ) without adaptation from producers. 

While current pasture technology is likely to be sufficient for producers in MRZ and higher rainfall zones (HRZ) to adapt, it will only provide a short-to-medium term solution in LRZ which will require new innovations by 2050 to remain viable. 

“The LRZ will be more challenging and require new systems and technologies, including earlier-maturing annual pasture species with specific traits for drought and heat tolerance, especially as a seedling.” 

While the research offered sobering results, being prepared can help offset the challenges ahead. 

“Now we know the gaps, we know where to focus our resources on closing them,” Kevin said. 

“Producers are already exhibiting a diverse range of responses. Some have been planning for the last decade, while others are beginning to make changes now.  

“Some are utilising early and late feeding systems such as high yielding short season forage crops, perennial pastures, shrubs and confinement feeding, or even buying or leasing land in other regions.” 

On-farm strategies

Growing barley or oats, mixed with a legume such as vetch, was identified by producers as an opportunity to increase feed availability at the beginning of the end of the season.  

Water security emerged as a top priority with producers engaged in the study. Some are working to conserve their supply, and others looking at methods to acquire more in dry periods.  

Improving inflow, installing more dams or cleaning existing dams and stopping them from leaking were all identified as methods to gain or conserve water.  

For others, desalination and on-farm bores is a potential longer-term solution, although producers highlighted that costs remain a barrier to adoption. 

“If we could get cheaper desalination units in the paddock, combined with cheap solar power, many producers and lot feeders would be more independent of rainfall,” Kevin said. 

Intensification of farming systems

The case studies also revealed that containment feeding and lot feeding are growing in popularity to manage late breaks of season to let their annual pastures establish before grazing.  

“Often, producers have little choice but to graze pastures as soon as the season breaks, as dry pasture, grain or hay is running out. However, this early grazing slows the pasture’s recovery,” Kevin said. 

While there’s growing interest in containment feeding, uncertainty around the correct feed rations, design, or the upfront costs could deter adoption. 

“Development of extension packages or decision support tools that cover feeding strategies, economics and practical system designs will be critical for increasing industry uptake.”  

Following modelled projections and an awareness of some of our current system limitations, Kevin said it’s important to encourage producers to develop and test new strategies ahead of further climate variability. 

“Despite increased variability, the challenges of the future can be managed if we begin adapting and implementing new systems and technologies now.” 

You can view the full report for SheepLinks: Climate adaption to ensure a sustainable WA sheep industry (FutureSheep) here.