P.PSH.1318 - SheepLinks: Climate adaptation to ensure a sustainable WA sheep industry (FutureSheep)
Did you know, the impacts projected future climate will have on Western Australia's agricultural production?
| Project start date: | 15 June 2021 |
| Project end date: | 30 August 2024 |
| Publication date: | 13 September 2024 |
| Project status: | Completed |
| Livestock species: | Lamb |
| Relevant regions: | Western Australia |
|
Download Report
(2.9 MB)
|
|
Summary
This project aimed to enhance understanding of the evolving climate change challenges facing sheep-producing regions of Western Australia (WA) and identify adaptations for the projected climates in 2030 and 2050.
Integrated assessment of modelled representative farms, biophysical simulations, economic modelling, and case studies were conducted for Kojonup, Wagin, and Merredin to assess the impact of future climates on agricultural production in these regions.
Simulation modelling indicated pasture yield losses across all sites by 2050 under moderate climate change scenarios, although changes were relatively modest in Wagin and Kojonup whereas Merredin faces heightened vulnerability. While current pasture technology is likely to be sufficient for producers in Wagin and Kojonup to adapt, it will only provide a short to medium term solution in Merredin which will require new innovations by 2050 to remain viable.
Objectives
The project aimed to enhance understanding of the evolving climate change challenges facing sheep-producing regions of and identify adaptations for the projected climates in 2030 and 2050.
Key findings
The EVALUS bio-economic model forecast decreased gross margins for cropping enterprises without adaptation across all locations by 2050 under various climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Gross margin (GM) variability is expected to increase significantly for cropping systems due to rainfall dependency and upfront costs (e.g. seeding, fertiliser). Conversely, sheep enterprises are less affected, as income is driven primarily by commodity prices (prime lamb and wool), which influence gross margins more than climate variations despite impacts on pasture yield.
Benefits to industry
This research will prove highly valuable in guiding the future research, development and adoption investments required to maintain a profitable and resilient agriculture sector in WA. It also complements equivalent bodies of work conducted for eastern and northern Australia, in providing a clear national picture of the impacts of predicted future climates on agricultural production.
MLA action
MLA will use these findings to inform RD&A investment priorities into the future. Project findings will also be available to the wider industry and stakeholders to inform both tactical and strategic adaptation strategies.
Future research
Short-term investment is needed for additional biophysical modelling studies to better represent low rainfall zone regions and incorporate new pasture species. Online tools and extension services are also essential to enable producers to access climate data for in-season tactical management.
Medium-term strategies should focus on funding research for more feedbase options adapted to a drying climate and summer-active forages. Accessing and utilising saline groundwater resources for intensive feeding systems and pasture irrigation is a strategic project with significant potential for the sheep industry.
Long-term investment (>10 years) should adjust plant breeding goals now towards earlier flowering and drought-resistant pasture species and also focusing on seedling-stage drought tolerance. Prioritise breeding sheep for resilience to variations in feed supply.
More information
| Project manager: | Mitchell Plumbe |
| Contact email: | reports@mla.com.au |
| Primary researcher: | Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development WA (DPIRD) |
