P.PSH.1248 - Nexus project – exploring profitable, sustainable livestock businesses in an increasingly variable climate
Ensuring profitability amidst climate change requires livestock businesses to prioritise enhancements in both feed quality and animal performance.
| Project start date: | 26 February 2020 |
| Project end date: | 31 October 2023 |
| Publication date: | 26 April 2024 |
| Project status: | Completed |
| Livestock species: | Grain-fed Cattle, Grass-fed Cattle, Sheep, Goat, Lamb |
| Relevant regions: | National |
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Summary
The Nexus project explored options for livestock businesses to adapt to the changing climate and reduce greenhouse gas emissions using four case studies in central Queensland, northern New South Wales (NSW), northern Victoria and East Gippsland. The project analysed future farm options (‘Base’, ‘Adapt’, ‘Towards carbon neutral’ and ‘Diversify and Grow’) using biophysical modelling, farm economics, and social research approaches together with regional reference groups who ensured that the work was regionally relevant. The research showed that warmer and drier climates will reduce pasture growth and farm profitability if businesses are operated in the same way, but the impact varied across regions. The Adapt option highlighted the opportunities and benefits for adaptation by implementing changes to feedbase and animal performance, with increased profit observed in all case studies and was consider achievable by the reference groups. Growing the farm business was predicted to be highly profitable but with increased financial risk. The Towards carbon neutral pathway achieved greenhouse gas emissions reduction mainly due to carbon sequestration in trees, highlighting a lack of practical mitigation options for pasture-based production systems. It was considered mostly unworkable by the reference groups. The project also evaluated the role of new technologies and made recommendations for future research, development and extension in the context of adapting to the changing climate and achieving emissions reduction on farms.
Objectives
The aim of the project was to:
1) Investigate future farm options that would adapt production systems to future conditions, including the changed climate and lower GHG emissions, using four case study farms in Central Queensland, northern NSW, northern Victoria and East Gippsland.
2) Use modelling to estimate the impact of future climate scenarios on production, GHG emissions and profit.
3) Social research investigated the adaptive capacity of farmers to make changes to their farm businesses.
Key findings
• Farm profitability is expected to decline in warmer climates by 2030 and 2050, especially in areas with reduced rainfall, highlighting the need to adapt livestock production to climate change.
• The 'Adapt' option, which involves improving the feedbase with summer-active pastures and enhancing livestock reproduction rates, is more profitable than the base farm, offering a feasible way to mitigate climate change's impact.
• The 'Diversify and Grow' option is often the most profitable but comes with higher year-to-year variation and financial risk. It is attractive but not universally feasible due to external factors.
• Achieving emissions reduction toward carbon neutrality relies heavily on tree planting, posing additional costs for farm businesses. It's considered inevitable but challenging with current technologies.
• Social research highlighted a general tendency for Nexus reference groups to perceive that that they had more capacity to implement the ‘Adapt’ and ‘Diversify and grow’ pathways, and less capacity to implement the ‘Towards carbon neutral’ pathway.
• Regardless of the chosen pathway, reference groups perceive limited capacity in terms of social, financial, and physical capitals for adaptation, suggesting the need for investments in social, financial, and physical resources to enhance adaptive capacity.
• New pastures with higher energy content and summer activity showed promise for increasing livestock business profitability, particularly in hot and dry climate scenarios.
• Increased animal efficiency reduces emissions intensity but may lead to higher total farm emissions if more livestock are introduced to graze excess pasture.
• A slow-release methane inhibitor that reduce enteric methane emissions by 80% has potential to reduce net farm greenhouse gas emission to approximately one third of the base farm, but further research into pasture, animal efficiency, and inhibitors is essential to achieve climate adaptation and emissions reduction goals.
Benefits to industry
This is the first project to identify pathways for the livestock industry to both adapt to the changing climate and reduce GHG emissions. The pathways mainly use existing technologies and highlight practical options to achieve adaptation and GHG reductions, and highlight that leading farmers are making changes to adapt and reduce GHG emissions intensity of livestock production. It has also highlighted the important role that new technologies will play in achieving the dual aims of adaptation and mitigation.
The project has also established a series case study farms that can be used in future research and development projects to model the impacts of changes at a whole farm system level, and piloted a social research methodology for producers and advisers to self-assess their current adaptive capacity for implementing options for adaptation and mitigation and where future extension and advisory support could be targeted.
MLA action
Create adoption resources (eg. fact sheets, recorded webinars) and using the outcomes of this project to inform new investments.
Future research
The project identified research, development and extension priorities for the industry to adapt to future conditions.
• While some of the research priorities were regionally specific, common elements included pasture improvement, increased animal production efficiency and use of tree planting on farm to reduce net GHG emissions. A strong focus on improved extension and advisory services to support adaptation and greenhouse gas mitigation was also identified.
• Feed base-related research recommendations focus on maximizing forage production during reliable growth seasons, extending the growing season, and exploring pasture options to reduce methane emissions. Regional, science-based testing of factors know to limited pasture productivity (including climate) was recommended.
• Animal management priorities involve improving feed efficiency to provide both adaptation and mitigation benefits and developing feed additives to reduce enteric methane production in pasture-based systems.
• Business structure and risk management options to reduce the risk of extreme climate events (bushfires, droughts, floods) require further investigation and consideration.
• Recommendations for extension services include region-based testing of adaptation and mitigation options in both commercial and research contexts over the mid-term (three to five) years, skill development for service providers to advise on carbon neutral agriculture and identify risk management strategies for implementing new practices for adaptation.
More information
| Project manager: | MS Melanie Smith |
| Contact email: | reports@mla.com.au |
| Primary researcher: | Brendan Cullen |
