P.PSH.1236 - Final Report: NEXUS Project: Exploring profitable, sustainable livestock businesses in an increasingly variable climate

Summary

Changing climates, and increased pressure from government and consumers to reduce the impacts of red meat on the environment threaten the viability of red meat production in Australia. We used bioeconomic modelling of a constructed case study farm in the Northern Downs region of Queensland to understand the impacts of a future climate (centred on 2050) on the productivity, profitability, and sustainability of beef production, and to evaluate a range of interventions. We also used semi-structured interviews to understand human adaptive and transformation capacity. Without changes to management, productivity, profitability, and sustainability of beef production in the Northern Downs region is predicted to decrease by 2050. Of the activities modelled, improving the feedbase through oversowing of herbaceous legumes, and transitioning from a breeder herd to steer turnover operation resulted in the greatest improvements in productivity and profitability. Large decreases in methane emissions, on a per ha and per kg liveweight sold basis, were possible through changing to a steer turnover operation and through the application of novel technologies that could provide reductions in the production of enteric methane. The results provide an indication of potential adaptation pathways for the industry and highlight gaps for future research and development.

Objectives

Objective 1. Model the impact of climate change scenarios against two time horizons (2030 and 2050) on a beef production system in Northern Queensland using a method consistent with the other nexus projects and sites.

The Northern Queensland case study was modelled under four future climate projections for 2050. The main trend for future climate in this region is continued high year-to-year variability, with little change in average conditions between 2030 and 2050.

Objective 2. Identify 10 prospective high priority research themes each for the beef and feedbase areas that mitigate the long-term impact of a changing climate. These themes will then be refined through engagement with the regional reference group to identify the most prospective areas for further investigation.

Research priorities were identified in consultation with the regional reference group.

Objective 3. Engage a minimum of 10 producers in strategic activities to explore the profitability and resilience of their production system against future climate change scenarios.

The project interacted with a number of producers, QDAF extension officers and staff from Southern Gulf NRM through the regional reference group, informal property visits, and interviews to explore adaptive capacity.

Objective 4. Calculate greenhouse gas emissions on the case study farm and investigate prospective abatement or mitigation methods, followed by modelling of the impacts of these strategies on total emissions.

The main source of greenhouse gas emissions from the case study enterprise is enteric methane from grazing cattle. Activities to reduce enteric methane were included in the bioeconomic modelling. Methods to sequester carbon in the landscape were not considered feasible for this case study, and were not included in the modelling component.

Objective 5. Conduct a skills assessment to determine what skills, capacities and capabilities will be required to equip the industry to adapt to modelled climate change scenarios and develop recommendations for pathways to develop these required skills, capacities, and capabilities.

Interviews were conducted with a diverse range of producers to understand their adaptive capacity in the context of scenarios explored in the bioeconomic modelling component of the project.

Key findings

Without changes to management, productivity, profitability, and sustainability of beef production in the Northern Downs region is predicted to decrease by 2050. Of the activities modelled, improving the feedbase through oversowing of herbaceous legumes, and transitioning from a breeder herd to steer turnover operation resulted in the greatest improvements in productivity and profitability. Large decreases in methane emissions, on a per ha and per kg liveweight sold basis, were possible through changing to a steer turnover operation and through the application of novel technologies (like a rumen bolus) that might provide large reductions in the production of enteric methane.

Benefits to industry

The project provides an evaluation of potential activities and technologies that will support the productivity, profitability, and sustainability of beef production in a changing climate.

MLA action

Research in this space is ongoing and MLA continues to invest in sustainability, and CN30 in projects that progress the industry towards these shared goals. This report highlights the lack of research in woody thickening, and encroachment of grassland areas as well as the differences in regional systems and approaches.

Future research

Based on the bioeconomic modelling, feedback from the regional reference group, and industry interviews, key recommendations for future research and development include:

- Research into pasture species capable of persisting in a variable climate. This could include novel species, or selective breeding and development of existing endemic species.

- Focus on identifying and development more locally appropriate technologies to reduce emissions from livestock production, or store carbon in landscapes.

- Improved understanding of the frequency, intensity and impacts of extreme events like flooding, which are difficult to predict and plan for.

- Larger scale modelling of climate change impacts on beef production, which account for interactions across the supply chain, especially relating to prices and markets.