B.CCH.8304 - Final monitoring and evaluation of Forewarned is Forearmed (FWFA)

Summary

This report presents the findings of the final monitoring and evaluation (M&E) investigation of the rural research and development (R&D) for profit project titled “Forewarned is Forearmed: managing the impacts of extreme climate events”. The project ran from mid-2017 to end of 2022 and was to provide, amongst other outputs, five new BOM forecast products for extreme events in the weeks, months, and seasons ahead. Funding partners included the Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry (DAFF) as part of the Rural R&D for Profit (RND4P) Program ($6 million), with further cash and in-kind contributions ($8 million) from 14 project partners covering Rural Research and Development Corporations (RDCs), BOM, universities and state departments of agriculture. The final evaluation was commissioned by Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) which managed the FWFA project on behalf of investment partners.

Objectives

The independent final evaluation of FWFA assesses and reports on:
1. Whether the project (including funding/budget), was undertaken consistent with relevant plans and contracts.
2. Whether a satisfactory governance arrangement was in place to robustly manage the project.
3. Whether the overall objectives (outputs and outcomes) of the project were achieved.
4. The degree to which project partners (both research providers and investors) were engaged in the project, felt they were able to provide appropriate input, and had their needs met
5. An assessment of overall ‘value’ to levy payers and the Commonwealth Government. This valuation took the form of both an ex-ante and ex-poste economic impact assessment.
6. Any recommendations in relation to outstanding issues that may form the focus of future collaborative R&D investment in climate extreme events or other related climate areas.

Key findings

The independent final review concluded that the FWFA RND4P project has been a valuable, relevant, effective, and efficient RD&E project. FWFA directly addressed each of the RND4P Program objectives and represents a practical response for the agricultural sector to better understand and adapt to a variable climate.

The project was undertaken in a manner consistent with relevant plans and contracts and delivered against all project objectives. Governance arrangements were strong throughout the project and stakeholders indicated a high level of satisfaction with project governance and management. FWFA partners were largely engaged and satisfied with project progress and adaptability, particularly with respect to project management during the COVID-19 global pandemic.

Overall, the project was well designed and executed with few research gaps. The FWFA project has been presented by stakeholders as a best practice example of a large and complex collaborative R&D project.

Benefits to industry

The FWFA independent final evaluation has provided FWFA project partners and the government with improved understanding of and ability to communicate the performance of the FWFA project. The review findings, including recommendations and identification of areas for further R&D, may be used by government, research funders, and industry to inform and prioritise future climate or climate related RD&E and to enhance future monitoring and evaluation processes.

Future research

Based on the independent final review of FWFA and associated stakeholder insights, the following areas were identified as opportunities for future collaborative climate extreme and other related climate area RD&E:
• further training of primary producer advisors and train-the-trainer initiatives in the use of FWFA products
• address the inconsistency between the seven-day forecast and ACCESS-S2 products
• increase the accuracy of seasonal forecasts
• extension of FWFA products from 6 months into the future to 12 months or more
• develop industry and location specific extreme event forecasts
• produce Product #6 (Extreme Wind) which incorporates a Chill Index
• engage the agribusiness/supply chain
• further exploration of private investment in the development of tailored forecast
• further development of risk management plans including their automation as software and ongoing update of their content post-FWFA
• research to understanding social response by primary producers to extreme.