B.CCH.8000 - Forewarned is Forearmed: managing the impacts of extreme climate events (Commonwealth Final Report)
MLA has developed five new forecast products for farmers available on the Bureau of Meteorology website.
| Project start date: | 29 June 2017 |
| Project end date: | 29 October 2023 |
| Publication date: | 07 May 2024 |
| Project status: | Completed |
| Livestock species: | Grain-fed Cattle, Grass-fed Cattle, Sheep, Goat, Lamb |
| Relevant regions: | National, Cold wet, Dry, Mediterranean, Tropical warm season wet, Sub-tropical moist, Sub-tropical sub-humid, Temperate, Temperate sub-humid, Tropical Moist, Tropical wet |
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(2.2 MB)
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Summary
The Forewarned is Forearmed (FWFA): managing the impacts of extreme climate events project was a long-term collaborative project funded by the Australian Government Department of Agriculture Fisheries and Forestry in the third round of the Rural Research & Development (R&D) for Profit (RRD4P) program along with significant cash and in-kind contributions from multiple Rural Research and Development Corporations (RDCs), the Bureau of Meteorology (Bureau), universities, state governments and private companies.
Objectives
The objective of FWFA was on improving the forecasting of extreme weather events and equipping farmers with the information and tools needed (on multi-week and seasonal timescales) to reduce the impact of these events on farm, and on business profit.
Key findings
Following an assessment of farmer needs, the Bureau of Meteorology developed five new forecast products based on those that were evaluated to be most popular. The new products include:
• chance of extremes maps for rainfall and temperature
• chance of 3-day totals maps
• decile bar charts for rainfall and temperature
• timeline graphs for rainfall and temperature
• probability of exceedance graphs for rainfall.
Since their release these new products have received over 1.34 million page views. The forecasts are based on the Bureau's seasonal forecast system and are available on the Bureau's public website for the benefit of all agriculture and can be found here http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary. Probability of exceedance graphs for rainfall.
Benefits to industry
These new products have provided agriculture in general and farmers in particular with the first ever forecasts of rainfall and temperature extremes for the weeks to seasons ahead. The ability to provide warning of these events increases the ability to manage climate risk. While farmers were the primary intended audience, extremes maps and charts have also been provided to emergency services managers, government and elected officials especially during the 2022 La Nina flooding periods. Many of the decisions that were assisted by using the maps have inevitably assisted farmers in many and varied indirect ways (e.g. releasing water from large storages ahead of rains to reduce flooding).
Future research
Future research, development and extension should leverage off and build on these established relationships, knowledge and insights to further refine and enhance the quality and interpretability of forecast information available to the agriculture sector. The experimental products are a key resource for future projects.
More information
| Project manager: | Hilary Connors |
| Contact email: | reports@mla.com.au |
| Primary researcher: | Bureau of Meteorology |
