Bureau of Meterology Forewarned is forearmed | 2023

Summary

In Australia, extreme climate events and climate variability are amongst the largest drivers of annual agricultural production and income. However, prior to the Forewarned is Forearmed (FWFA) project there were no warnings of these extremes beyond the 7-day weather forecast. Consequently, there was a significant gap in the capacity of agriculture to mitigate and plan for events such as a very wet season, or a heatwave in the coming weeks. The FWFA project aimed to start filling this gap.

Working with research partners and producers, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) would develop and deliver forecasts of the likelihood of climate extremes on multi-week and seasonal timescales, using the state-of-the art prediction system, ACCESS-S. Research partners would use Bureau of Meteorology outputs and work directly with producers to interface the forecasts to agricultural decision-making, including developing risk management strategies.

FWFA is supported by funding from the Australian Government as part of its Rural R&D for Profit program in partnership with rural Research and Development Corporations, commercial companies, state departments and universities. 

The project was managed by Meat & Livestock Australia.

This report focuses on the Bureau of Meteorology component of the FWFA project.

Objectives

The objectives for the Bureau of Meteorology's component of the project were to:

• Evaluate producer needs for forecasts of climate extremes
• Conduct underpinning scientific research to understand the large-scale drivers (e.g., El Niño) of extremes, and the strengths and weaknesses of the ACCESS-S forecast system
• Conduct research and development to improve the forecast model
• Develop a large set of experimental forecast products
• Deliver a sub-set of five new forecast products on the Bureau's public website, for the benefit of all agriculture.

Key findings

A key outcome of the project is the five new forecast products available on the Bureau of Meteorology's website. These represent a significant enhancement of the climate outlooks service, providing agriculture with critical information of upcoming extremes.

The end-to-end approach of the project − spanning underpinning climate science, forecast product development, engagement with users, and the delivery of a new service − enabled efficient feedback between the different components, facilitating a faster and more effective outcome of delivering practical and useful information to decision-makers.

Benefits to industry

The project has delivered a state-of-the-art forecasting service for extreme climate events via the Bureau of Meteorology website. The project has improved the quality of climate and weather information available to the agriculture sector. This will improve decision-making, resilience and proactive planning for managing climate variability and change.

Future research

The project leaves a legacy of:

• Strong networks between researchers from different agricultural research institutes and Development Corporations (RDC's)
• A large set of experimental forecast products
• A large body of scientific knowledge
• Key insights into agricultural decision-making and the use of forecast information.

Future research, development and extension should leverage off and build on these established relationships, knowledge and insights to further refine and enhance the quality and interpretability of forecast information available to the agriculture sector. The experimental products are a key resource for future projects.