W.LIV.2017 - Validating the shipping routes to ports north of the equator and updating their respective Port Climate Data for the HSRA Model

Summary

The current heat stress risk assessment (HSRA) model relies on historical weather data for ship routes to port and port climatic data to predict risk. Uncertainty about the climatic conditions and variability makes ships sailing north of the equator and being docked at some ports at some times of the year at increased risk of heat stress. There is an imperative to update and better understand ship sailing routes and port climatic conditions. This will help better manage sailing and port climate risk to livestock. This will include heat stress and cold stress risk for some shipping routes and ports at various times of the year. This project will deliver an updated validated data set of up to sailing routes to 63 ports and their respective updated port climate data that will then be fed into the HSRA model as it undergoes an upgrade simultaneously.

Objectives

The overarching goal of this project is to improve heat stress support for The Australian Meat and Livestock Association (MLA) for their livestock export programs. There is a strong relationship between the 2-metre Wet-Bulb Temperature (WBT) and heat stress livestock experience along international shipping routes. Therefore, the project objective is to build an up-to-date climatology of WBT along MLA’s shipping routes between Australia and Middle Eastern and Asian ports.

Key findings

Provides the key 98th percentile wet bulb temperature data for weather stations considered to be representative for the key destination ports across the Middle East and west Asia.

Benefits to industry

The key benefits to the livestock export industry will be improved statistical data up until the end of 2020 made available to exporters operating out of Australia for heat and cold stress risk assessment purposes. The exporters will be able to utilise these datasets to select stock types and stocking densities on their stock carriers, as well as identifying which months of the year pose the greatest and least risks of heat and/or cold stress.

This will enable the industry to select which months of the year have acceptable levels of heat and/or cold stress to better manage the export of live animals from Australia in an informed manner with the welfare of the animals a key consideration. This should reduce the chances of a significant heat or cold stress event occurring for shipments from Australian exporters and allow them to apply scientifically based risk assessments to determine the suitability of various types of animals for export to potential markets across the Middle East and west Asia.

MLA action

Engage with the Live Export Program R&D to ensure currency of climate data

Future research

As climate change is accelerating, the results of this and the companion studies should be updated in approximately two years’ time as the statistics of wet and dry bulb temperatures will have changed by that time. Wet bulb temperatures can be expected to rise for most locations as the climate warms and hence the risk of heat stress will also worsen. Conversely for most locations there will be a gradual decline in the risk of cold stress.

For locations where there is no weather station close to the port or there are geographical influences that could cause the wet bulb climatology at the port to differ from that at the reference weather station, a program of installation and operation of automatic weather stations should be considered, particularly at locations with high heat stress risks.