B.CCH.2122 - Insights into barriers and bridges to the adoption of multiweek and seasonal forecasts

Summary

This qualitative study examined why the barriers to the use of SCFs exist and propose bridges to increase their use. Key informants and stakeholders with experience with SCFs from the winegrapes, dairy, sugar, red meat, and grains industries were interviewed.

The interviews were transcribed and analysed to identify patterns and themes with growers’ use of SCFs. We found that it was not a simple matter of overcoming one or two barriers, but rather the barriers to the use of SCFs happen in combinations and they are mostly related to how SCFs are communicated by their developers and understood by their users.

This knowledge will assist those involved in developing, promoting, and using SCFs to better understand what could be changed to increase their appropriate use, which will over time lead to improved profitability for agriculture.

Objectives

The main research aims were to:

1. Identify the barriers to the use of seasonal climate forecasts for tactical climate-sensitive decisions.

2. Propose bridges to build farmers’ more informed use of seasonal climate forecasts for tactical climate-sensitive decisions.

This project intended to review, categorise, and prioritise the barriers to the adoption of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) drawing from the existing literature as well as being informed by interviews with stakeholders from the dairy, grain, red meat, winegrapes, and sugar industries.

Interviewees from the five different agricultural industries were asked for feedback on 25 statements about barriers to the use of SCFs found in the literature. The interviews were conducted from 2-24 December 2021.

Key findings

This work confirms the findings of Taylor et al (2021) that a large proportion of growers are aware of SCFs, but many have made little use of them beyond their initial engagement.

There are three factors that are influential in encouraging growers’ more informed use of SCFs. Two are related to the design and communication of the SCF itself, and one is related to growers’ understanding of SCFs and their potential benefits.

1. Usable design: SCFs are designed for growers as a result of testing and multiple engagements with agricultural end-users.

2. Appropriate communication: SCFs are communicated in such a way that users and intermediaries can more easily understand their underpinning concepts. Concepts of probabilities, forecast skill level, and that low skill level may mean that at times they should not be used are central to the communication, not footnotes.

3. From awareness to value: Growers are provided with tools to assist with the application of SCF outputs to climate risky decisions so that they can assess the potential benefits in their own situation.

Benefits to industry

Encouraging the use of SCFs when they have something to offer agricultural industries could result in substantial financial gains through increased profitability and reduced risk. Helping growers develop an awareness of when not to use SCFs will increase their confidence in them so that they are more likely to use them successfully when they have something to offer.

MLA action

MLA has continued work on making seasonal climate forecasting available for producers through the Forewarned is Forearmed, Northern Australia Climate Program, and development of PGS packages to provide producer training.

Future research

A useful social science research project could focus on translating what probabilities mean into a language that farmers can grasp. Previous attempts at assisting growers to develop an improved understanding of probabilities (and even deciles) have been successful for some, but not all growers.

What needs to be explored is the terminology around the communication of risk, with an emphasis on seasonal climate risk, so that information can be presented in a way that growers can easily comprehend.

The practical application of the results from this project is that they can be used to inform the materials and programs around SCFs and similar tools so that they are more likely to be used by growers when they can deliver a benefit to them.