Whole Farm Systems Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on the Southern Grazing (Tas DPI component) Industries - (a sub-project under the Climate Change Adaptation in the Southern Australian Livestoc…

Summary

This project formed part of the Climate Change Adaptation in the Southern Australian Livestock Industries program focused on the mitigation of greenhouse gases and climate change adaptation options for the dairy industry.

Regional consultations were undertaken with farmers and industry representatives to present the modelling results of the Program and gather regionally specific feedback on likely adaptation and mitigation options.

Objectives

The objectives of this project were to:

• create a knowledge base will be established to underpin ongoing engagement with livestock producers in Tasmania, and to facilitate further research, development and extension in climate change adaptation
• educate 200 livestock producers across Tasmania of the key outcomes of the program through a combination of field days, workshops and written material
• establish an improved modelling capacity across a range of industry RD&E providers that will assist industry in evaluating adaptation options in more detail across a range of agro-climatic regions.

Key findings

• The effects of climate change to the 2030 horizon on Tasmanian live-stock systems are forecast to be generally benign. The key modelling outcome is that pasture production is indicated to broadly increase in this timeframe or remain similar with improved seasonal supply.
• Generally, it appears that increased temperatures and reduced frost frequency may improve pasture growth. This alongside a largely neutral or improved rainfall leads to forecasts of improved or similar pasture production. In the absence of any substantially increased seasonal feed deficit notably in summer, animal production is forecast to increase in many regions.
• The key adaptation facing many regions seems to be making use of improved opportunity for more effective utilisation of the pasture resource, with increasing stocking rate used to capture this opportunity within systems similar to those already being operated.

Benefits to industry

Issues of local interest include a commitment to long term bio-economic monitoring across a range of enterprises and climatic zones. Such monitoring will assist in developing the case for adaptive change and in validating the basis for modelled comparisons with selected adaptations.

Adaptations that have indicative benefit now and into the near future may be included in demonstration or case study analyses. In contrast to the other Southern states, the future forecasts for Tasmania are generally positive. As we approach 2030 and beyond, and if the current climate forecasts are born out, Tasmania with its water supply and climate security may become an even more attractive hub for agricultural development.

Future research

Improved modelling capacity, particularly with respect to pasture responses may be a valuable development. This may encompass new species parametrisation and improved modelling of within sward competition.

Trends of increasing animal production and carrying capacity, and perhaps reduced variability of pasture performance may give producers greater confidence to adopt mechanisms for increasing overall pasture utilisation.

Part of the adaptive process may be significantly improved attention to performance monitoring. This may provide the evidence and assurance for reasoned adaptive changes that seek to make hay while the sun shines, so to speak, and bank the opportunity that improved pasture growth may offer.