Development and Trial Operation of a Weather Forecasting Service for Exessive Heat Load Events for The Australian Feedlot Industry

Summary

Warning feedlot operators of impending adverse weather conditions that could lead to excessive heat loads (and pVarious Australian and American studies have demonstrated that sustained excessive heat loads can cause severe stress and potentially premature death in feedlot cattle. Prior warning of these events will facilitate various mitigation measures such as change of diet, provision of shade and other heat-relief systems.

The forecasting of conditions external to a feedlot can be used to predict internal feedlot conditions, using the results of recent MLA meteorological monitoring projects. Key issues The key issues in producing a commercially viable feedlot weather forecasting system include:

(a) Identification of primary and derived meteorological parameters that indicate excessive heat load in various types of cattle and cattle storage mechanisms.

(b) Selection of methodology for predicting primary and derived parameters at feedlot locations over a suitable time horizon.

(c) Determination of the utility of on-site micrometeorological measurements for improving forecast accuracy.

(d) Development of a prototype software system for predicting feedlot conditions.

(e) Field testing of prototype, with feedback from feedlot operators.

(f) Review of prototype and alternative delivery mechanisms for feedlot forecasts.

(g) Selection of appropriate business model for commercialisation of final system in Australia and overseas.

(h) Identification of ongoing research and development required for supporting a sustainable commercial system taking advantage of ongoing advances in cattle response evaluation and mitigation measures.

This project has focussed on items (a) & (f) but makes some recommendations on the items (g) & (h) that are outside the project scope. At the outset, the following constraints and opportunities were identified: Whilst Commonwealth agencies such as the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and CSIRO provide an ever-expanding variety of services, there is no current system in Australia dedicated to predicting thermal comfort indices on a fine timescale out to the necessary 3-6 day time horizon. Numerical weather prediction models, whilst rapidly improving in skill and resolution, are unlikely to be practical for forecasting down to the feedlot scale. Finer spatial resolution usually results in shorter prediction horizons.

There is considerable research and development occurring in the United States and elsewhere on the prediction of thermal comfort indices and extreme conditions but this is in its infancy. Regional climate change models suggest that extreme events such as heatwaves are likely to become more frequent over the next 10-30 years. Weather measurement systems and associated communication systems are increasingly sophisticated, inexpensive and easy to use and install. Fine resolution weather prediction systems have recently been required in the privatised energy market, both for demand forecasting and risk management. In the next 2-5 years numerical weather modelling is likely to produce better forecasts of prediction errors as well as extending the forecast horizon to 6-10 days. Whilst temperature, humidity and wind predictions are easily tested, the prediction of site-specific rainfall and cloud cover is fraught with problems, due to the highly localised nature of these parameters.

Other MLA Cattle Heat Load Toolbox projects

• B.FLT.4011 – summer 2019-2020 and 2020-2021
• B.FLT.4004 – summer 2018-2019
• B.FLT.4001 – summer 2017-2018
• B.FLT.0151 – summer 2011-2012
• B.FLT.0365 – summer 2010-2011
• B.FLT.0357 – summer 2009-2010
• B.FLT.0352 – summer 2008-2009
• B.FLT.0346 – summer 2007-2008
• B.FLT.0340 – summer 2006-2007
• FLOT.334 – summer 2005-2006
• FLOT.329 – summer 2004-2005
• FLOT.324 – summer 2003-2004
• FLOT.320 – summer 2002-2003