Slaughter and carcase weights to increase in 2021

MLA’s latest Sheep Industry Projections highlight the ongoing recovery in the national flock, which is  forecast to lift 5% to 67.3 million head by June 2021.  

Heightened retention of ewes and ewe lambs will create tight supplies over the first half of the year, with prices expected to find support from smaller yardings. Unlike in previous La Niña years, the pace of the rebuild will be slower in 2021, following on from the smallest flock size in over 100 years.

Lamb numbers are expected to lift due to increased marking rates from the 2020 crop, with an improved plane of nutrition in 2021 likely to further this trend.

A bigger lamb crop will translate to a modest increase in lamb slaughter, up 4% year-on-year to 20.8 million head, with a sharper increase offset by producer intentions to rebuild. This will have flow-on effects for national lamb production, which is forecast to lift 6% to 508,000 tonnes carcase weight (cwt), further supported by a 2% lift in lamb carcase weights to 24.4kg/head.

Much of the rebuild will be driven by the eastern states, with Western Australia remaining in a destocking phase. The western mainland missed much of the rainfall experienced over NSW and Victoria last year, forcing producers to bring forward stock in strong numbers towards the end of last year.

Looking ahead, sheepmeat exports are set to find support as the world moves towards a COVID-19 recovery phase, with the development and administration of various vaccine programs underway. Australian lamb exports are expected to lift 10% in 2021, to 290,000 tonnes shipped weight (swt), while mutton exports will remain steady at 140,000 tonnes swt.

The 2021 Sheep Industry Projections are available here.

© Meat & Livestock Australia Limited, 2021