Turnoff remains elevated

The National Livestock Reporting Service (NLRS) reported eastern states slaughter at 149,400 head last week, up 5% on year-ago levels.

Eastern states cattle slaughter has largely tracked above year-ago levels, only dipping below 2018, during the extended holiday period of Easter and Anzac day.  All states have supported year-to-date increases, as conditions across most key production regions await a significant improvement in conditions, in particular Queensland and NSW.

Eastern states slaughter for the week ending 23 August:

• Queensland totalled 81,100 head, up 8% year-on-year
• NSW totalled 35,100 head, steady with year-ago levels
• Victoria totalled 25,400 head, up 11% year-on-year
• SA totalled 4,000 head, easing 21% on year-on-year
• Tasmania totalled 3,700 head, easing 14% year-on-year

Queensland, continues to kill high volumes, processing just over 81,000 head last week and accounting for 54% of eastern states cattle slaughter. As illustrated below, the combined southern states (NSW, Victoria, SA and Tasmania) weekly slaughter has tracked sideways since the end of July, with Queensland driving an increase in turnoff compared to the combined southern states. For the week ending 23 August, Queensland cattle slaughter was reported 8% higher compared to the corresponding week last year - the largest this margin has been since April.

The latest Bureau of Meteorology outlook indicates the likelihood of drier conditions across most of mainland Australia, with the September outlook for the north looking particular dry. The sustained dry, combined with poor spring prospects has continued to see numbers brought forward, as the anticipated easing trend for turnoff is yet to present itself.

However, Queensland grids edged higher across all categories. The grassfed trade steer indicator (240-260kg carcase weight, A-C muscle) in Queensland increased 3¢ this week, to 542¢/kg carcase weight (cwt) and remained unchanged in NSW at 534¢/kg cwt. With better spring prospects, the aforementioned indicator in Victoria continued to trade at a premium, currently reported at 563¢/kg cwt.

© Meat & Livestock Australia Limited, 2019