Dry July outlook

The lack of rain over the last month has somewhat hampered the typical seasonal price gains seen during winter – for both the sheep and cattle markets. Released today, the BOM’s rainfall outlook for the remainder of winter and beginning of spring unfortunately does not offer much reprieve for producers across large parts of southern Australia.

July to September rainfall is likely to be below average in southeast Australia and southwest WA. Most of central Australia has a roughly equal chance of a wetter or drier three months, while the Top End in NT and northeast Queensland is more likely to exceed the median rainfall.

The Cape York and Bowen regions of Queensland, along with the Ord River region in the Kimberley, have an increased chance of an earlier than usual onset of the northern wet season.

If a dry winter eventuates, the sheep and cattle markets will continue to pressured, particularly as supplies begin to ramp up as spring approaches. Compared to the long term averages, however, current prices are high, and the relatively tight supplies at present are providing support.