Rainfall expected in the South – BOM

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The latest three month weather outlook (April to June), from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), points towards a strong chance of above average rainfall in parts of southern Australia, while the dry spell is expected to continue in northern regions.

In Victoria conditions are likely to follow suit with last year as ‘below average’ rainfall is forecast for central & eastern regions. Similarly, rainfall in Central Queensland is also expected to trend ‘below average’, as higher sea surface temperatures around the coast continue to move inland.

Encouragingly, April to June rainfall is likely to be ‘above average’ throughout SA, NSW, as well as far western corners of Queensland, Victoria and the Gascoyne region of WA. Historically, outlook accuracy at this time of the year is ‘moderate to high’ over most parts of Australia, with Tasmania and parts of the south the exception.

Temperatures in April are expected to cool off, although not to the extent that they would normally, with ‘warmer than average’ mercury expected across most of the country during April. The only exceptions are southern interior and western WA regions.

BOM suggest that the combination of a steadily declining El Nino likelihood and very warm sea temperatures, particularly over the Indian Ocean, are likely to contribute to the ‘warmer than average’ Autumn. While rainfall is expected for some in autumn, it will take plenty of follow-up to reprieve drought conditions.