Why are lambs hitting the market later?
27 February 2025
Key points:
- New survey results suggest that 53% of lambs will enter the market between January and June 2025.
- Weather, price and disruptions are the three factors holding sheep back.
- Saleyards remain important, making up 58% of reported sales.
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About MLA and AWI’s Sheep Producers Intentions surveys Earlier this week, results from the joint Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) and Australian Wool Innovation (AWI) Sheep Producer Intentions Survey (February 2025) Producer Update on Lamb Sales Estimates (PULSE) report were released. In October, sheep and wool producers were asked for reported lamb sales for the month, as well as planned sales for the November/December period and forecast sales for the first half of 2025 (January to June). The PULSE survey in February recontacts producers who responded to the lamb-focused October survey, gathering data on actual sales over the 2024 period and a renewed forecast of expected 2025 sales. |
According to the latest PULSE survey from MLA and AWI, most lamb producers made some changes to their planned sales volumes:
- 42% sold fewer lambs than expected
- 21% reported they sold more lambs than expected
- the remaining 37% sold the number of lambs they planned.
In October, producers indicated that 46% of lamb sales would be made from January to June. This PULSE survey suggests that now 53% of lambs will enter the market after January.
Why producers moved sales to the new year
The reasons provided by producers to move lamb sales into 2025 were varied, but can be attributed to three key drivers:
1. Weather and weights:
- 29% of producers indicated that weather impacted lamb performance
- 14% noted that the holdback was due to lambs not making weights
- 2% lambs lost or not up to quality.
2. Prices:
- 19% retained lambs due to 2025 prices being expected to be stronger
- 17% noted current prices were not strong enough.
3. Supply chain and business disruptions:
- 14% were busy with harvest and other farm operations
- 7% struggled for processor space
- 5% for personal issues
- 2% had difficulties accessing transport.
For the 21% who turned off more than expected before the year's end, weather and price-related topics were six of the top seven reasons. Interestingly, 14% raised the need for additional cash flow as a decision driver for earlier sales.
State supply shift
Individually, each state saw supply shift later. Drought-impacted South Australia saw the highest response of producers selling less than expected in October 2024 at a total of 50%, followed by Tasmania with 48% of produce. After facing some slight climate recovery, Victoria had the largest result, producing sales more than what was expected from October.
Lastly, the survey asked respondents what sales channels they used. Saleyards were used more than expected, with 58% of sales made through saleyards and 27% through over-the-hooks, reinforcing the importance of saleyards for sheep producers.
Primary sales channel by state:
- NSW: saleyard – 73%
- Queensland: saleyard – 58%
- SA: over-the-hooks – 45%
- Tasmania: saleyard – 54%
- Victoria: saleyard – 60%
- WA: over-the-hooks – 49%
Read the complete Sheep Producer Intentions Survey February 2025 Producer Update on Lamb Sales Estimates (PULSE) report here.
Attribute to: Erin Lukey, MLA Senior Market Information Analyst
