When new season lamb supply could peak in your state

There are multiple factors weighing on supply performance at the saleyard level for spring 2022 including:

• large volumes of contracted lambs sold direct from the paddock
• wet weather
• transport access
• short selling weeks.

These factors are contributing to lower weekly highs of new season lambs year-on-year across all states except WA and show a trend of tightening spring flush volumes, despite slaughter outperforming the past two years.

Find out more about each state’s new season lamb supply and when supply peaks may occur based on current conditions, as well as past historical trends.

NSW

• At the time of writing, new season lamb supply is operating 30% below the three-year average for the week ending Friday 7 October.
• In 2020, new season lamb supply peaked in the week ending Friday 16 October at 96,200 head. In 2021, new season lamb supply peaked in the week ending Friday 29 October at 64,250 head.
• When coupled with current seasonal conditions and wet weather hampering transport access as well as the finished quality of lambs, this data indicates NSW’s 2022 supply peak may occur later than the previous two years.

VIC

• Victorian supply for the week ending Friday 7 October is firm on the three-year average and has increased by 188% since the beginning of September.
• The timing of weekly seasonal peaks in the supply of new season Victorian lambs over the past three years has remained the same, with supply consistently peaking in the second and third weeks of December since 2019.
• The highest volume of Victorian lambs was recorded in 2020 at 127,100 head. This figure was 14% or 17,900 head higher than the 2021 peak of 109,200 head.
• Victoria’s new season supply of lambs is currently firm on year-ago levels. However, compared to the same week in 2020, it is softer by 46% or 16,600 head.

SA

• For the week ending Friday 7 October, new season lamb supply is operating 30% higher than the three-year weekly average for SA.
• Compared with the first week of September, new season lamb supply has risen by 430% or 7,700 head in SA.
• Dry conditions across SA in 2021 meant the states’ supply peak occurred four weeks earlier than the previous two years of 2019 and 2020. During 2019 and 2020, volumes peaked in the third week of November – but in 2021, this peak was reached in the third week of October.
• Recent sharp uplifts in supply since early September and favourable seasonal conditions are delivering larger volumes of lambs in the state and may indicate strong saleyard supply moving towards the end of 2022.

WA

• Current weekly new season lamb supply in WA is operating 10% below the three-year average.
• WA’s peak supply period during both 2019 and 2021 was the third week of December. 2020 bucked this trend, with lamb supply peaking one month earlier in the second week of November.   
• WA’s spring flush peak of 16,450 lambs during December 2021 was the highest since 2018 and with favourable rainfall patterns supporting improved lambing percentages in WA during 2022, a large cohort of new season lambs may be expected for the remainder of 2022.

Looking ahead

Supply peaks of new season lambs will occur at different times across the different states over the next three months. With continued wet weather impacting lamb performance and transport capacity, supply peaks during the 2022 spring flush appear to be occurring significantly later.

Producers’ capacity to transport lambs off-farm at finished quality and weight will determine when they hit the market and as a result the price performance of lambs moving forward.