Weather forecasting plays pivotal role in decision-making
05 December 2024
Key points:
- Livestock management decisions have been impacted by regional seasonal disparities.
- Despite mixed seasonal disparities, the sheep and cattle markets remain strong.
- Amid forecast uncertainty, increased producer cautiousness has been observed.
Due to seasonal conditions, a split between northern and southern Australia is evident, and the separation has caused variance in producer decisions across the livestock industry.
Looking back at 2024
In Queensland, northern NSW and pastoral regions, a fourth (generally) positive season led to turn-off of quality mature cattle and elevated feedlot utilisation. Southern NSW, Victoria, SA, Tasmania and parts of WA have faced dry conditions, leading to destocking.
The north experienced an excellent wet season, which allowed producers to be set up well into the new year. The Gulf region recorded its highest-ever rainfall. The south recorded well-above-average levels of rainfall, leading sheep producers to increase joining rates with the hopes of continued rainfall.
By April, in western Victoria and SA, conditions remained dry, particularly in the pastoral zones that typically experience reliable rainfall. Limited pasture and water supplies led to challenges in maintaining herd sizes. Meanwhile, the north continued to experience higher-than-average rainfall.
As the year progressed, heavier cattle and lambs came to market in NSW and Queensland. Southern producers received some rainfall; however, critical management decisions had already been made, resulting in lower marking rates and lighter animals.
The lack of feed in southern regions has meant sheep and cattle were turned-off at lighter weights.
Despite an increased supply of lighter animals, prices have remained strong, with NSW and Queensland buyers purchasing more restockers. The cattle and sheep markets have remained stable over the past year.
The forecast for the rest of December indicates rainfall will likely be above-average for most of Australia.
As producers contend with unpredictable weather and fluctuating market conditions, cautiousness around stocking rates and available feed will have a greater influence on producer decision-making over the next year.
Attribute to Emily Tan, MLA Market Information Analyst.
