WATCH: MLA Projections webinars detailing the future of the herd and flock
14 March 2025
Key points:
- Despite a fall in the cattle herd, record production and exports are expected
- Although dry conditions have caused the lamb flock to ease, production remains solid
- Watch MLA’s Market Information team deliver insights through two webinars.
This week, MLA’s Market Information team released the 2025 Cattle and Sheep Industry Projections alongside two one-hour webinars detailing the results.
These projections are important resources that are utilised across the supply chain, from producers to processors, exporters and retailers.
The documents, published in two separate editions (cattle and sheep), include a herd and flock estimate, slaughter, production, carcase weight, export, and live export forecast for a three-year period (to 2027). MLA’s model generates forecasts, which include a range of internal and external inputs. The Market Information team then conducts in-depth consultations to validate the range of scenarios generated by the model.
Cattle projections
The cattle herd is projected to fall by 1.4% to 30.1 million head in 2025 due to increased turn-off of older breeding cows and dry conditions in southern Australia. It will continue to shrink over the following two years as turn-off remains elevated to manage carrying capacity, resulting in a herd of 28.8 million head in 2027.
The decrease in the herd is driven by elevated slaughter, which will lift to 8.5 million head for the calendar year 2025. This will enable production to break the record reached in 2024 and remain elevated until 2027.
Sheep projections
The sheep flock is expected to follow similar dynamics, though conditions in southern Australia have had a more substantial impact. The national sheep flock is estimated to ease by 7.4% to 73.2 million head in 2025, recovering slightly by 2027 to 74.1 million head.
An ease is expected in lamb slaughter to 26.2 million head, though remaining well above long-term averages, signalling a new ‘normal’ for the lamb production sector. The ability of the national flock to produce more lambs from a smaller flock can be seen in the chart below.
Sheep slaughter will ease by 16.9% to 9.8 million head after the strong mutton turn-off in 2024. Production is expected to remain strong, sitting just under the record 2024 figure and staying high for the forecast period.
MLA’s Market Information team will release a second document in September, using Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data to publish the Cattle and Sheep Industry Projection - Update, ensuring accurate and timely forecasts.
View the two webinars from earlier this week for a more detailed overview of the projection documents:
Attribute to: Erin Lukey, MLA Senior Market Information Analyst
