The changing landscape of Australia’s sheep flock

Between 2016 and 2021, Australia’s national flock grew by 500,000 head and the number of sheep producers grew by 2%.

On a state-by-state basis, this growth in sheep numbers and businesses wasn’t uniform – the primary growth in sheep numbers came from Victoria, Queensland, SA and Tasmania.

The most significant increases were:

• Victoria by 2.3 million head, or 18%, to 15.4 million head
• Queensland by 265,000 head, or 15%, to 2.08 million head
• Tasmania by 327,000 head, up 16%, to 2.4 million head.

These increases ensured that every sheep-producing state now has a population of over two million head. This shows the strength of the flock regrowth in Queensland following the significant investment in exclusion fencing in the last decade which encouraged the return of sheep to the state.

Between 2016 to 2021, the historically strong sheep-producing states of WA and NSW both experienced large declines of over 1.1 million head in their sheep populations – NSW decreased 1.256 million head, or 5% and WA decreased 1.147 million head or 8%.

However, while sheep numbers fell in NSW, the number of sheep businesses increased by 68 businesses, or 1%, as more properties ran smaller flocks. By comparison, in SA, the number of sheep increased while the number of enterprises fell, indicating that fewer enterprises were running more sheep.

The number of sheep per enterprise in 2021 and 2016 on a state basis is outlined below (Table 1).

Table 1: Average sheep per farm, per state – 2016 and 2021

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Despite WA sheep numbers and businesses decreasing – falling from above 3,000 head per enterprise to 2,953 per enterprise – the average flock per enterprise still remains the largest in the country.

Producers in Queensland and Victoria tend to have smaller flocks per property, under 2,000 head per enterprise.

Between 2016 and 2021, total sheep and lamb numbers increased – however not all categories increased. The number of rams and wethers declined in this period by 1.2 million sheep, or 1.2%.

Contributing factors may have been:

• access to shearers
• reduced live export numbers
• the 2020 wool price crash, when the price of wool fell below 900¢/kg.

It is unlikely to have been caused by mutton prices as the differential between mutton and trade lamb prices in this time improved.

Breeding ewe numbers during these five years increased 1%, or 442,000 head. Non-Merino breeding ewes jumped 2.1%, or 250,000 head, to 12 million head compared to Merino ewe numbers which rose 0.8%.

Overall, this demonstrates a movement towards meat breeds within the national flock.

This was further reinforced by the increase in enterprises running non-Merino ewes which was up 7.5% in 2021.

Compared to 2016, national lamb numbers increased 5.9% in 2021, compared to 2016. This demonstrates just how strong the current 2020–2023 flock rebuild is.

There are 419 shires in Australia involved in sheep and lamb production.

These are shown in three categories: growth, no change or shrinking.

Growth

Southern Grampians sheep numbers grew 367,803 head or 18% in the last five years – the largest actual increase of any LGA (on actual sheep numbers).

The second largest increase – 260,653 head – occurred in the Northern Midlands area of Tasmania. The third, fourth and fifth biggest increase in sheep numbers in absolute numbers occurred in Ararat (NSW), Longreach (Queensland) and the West Wimmera (WA) – all increasing by over 177,600 head.

The shires who experienced growth in the number of farms running sheep were:

• Glenelg (SA)
• Southern Grampians (Victoria)
• Campaspe (Victoria)
• Upper Lachlan (NSW)
• Toowoomba (Queensland).

Each of these LGAs saw an addition of at least 45 sheep businesses between 2016–2021.

Underpinning Queensland’s resurgence of sheep numbers was the investment in an exclusion fence. In the five years to 2021, the sheep population in Longreach increased 125% – from 146,000 head to 330,739 head. At the same time this occurred, the number of sheep enterprises in Longreach fell 13%, to 70 enterprises. This indicates that sheep farms in the area increased in scale and rationalised. 

No change

The shires experiencing no change in sheep businesses or flock numbers can be considered mature sheep-producing regions which are stable and not influenced by structural changes.

The shires who had no change in the number of sheep farms were:

• Moree (NSW)
• Beverley (WA)
• Central Highlands (Tasmania)
• Victoria Plains (Queensland)
• Snowy Monaro (NSW)
• Mount Alexandria (Victoria)
• Wudinna (SA)
• Balranald (NSW)
• Peterborough (SA).

The shires that experienced minimal changes in flock numbers (between 1.5% and -1.5% change) were:

• Quilpie (Queensland)
• Macedon Ranges (Victoria)
• Moira (Victoria)
• Snowy Monaro (NSW)
• Katanning (WA)
• Gunnedah (NSW)
• Wakefield (SA).

Shrinking

The greatest reduction in sheep farms occurred in:

• Unincorporated SA
• Armidale (NSW)
• Yilgarn (WA)
• Bland (NSW)
• Esperance (WA).

These LGAs differ in landscapes and production systems – from rangelands (incorporating SA) to the Wheatbelt (Esperance) – therefore there is one reason for falling sheep businesses in these areas.

The shires with over 50,000 head that experienced the biggest percentage drop in sheep numbers between 2016 and 2021 were:

• Broken Hill (NSW) – 57%
• Yilgarn (WA) – 53%
• Wandering (WA) – 48%
• Northampton (WA) – 41%
• Irwin (WA) – 40%.

The last three of these shires are in WA’s mid-west and could be explained by increased cropping in the area.