Steer prices converge after east coast rain
28 March 2025
Key points:
- National steer prices have converged after 12 months of steady steer premiums.
- Heavy rainfall has boosted producer confidence, leading to price increases across all steer categories.
- Short-term effects of weather disruptions have reduced cattle supply, while longer-term impacts may delay stock processing.
National steer prices have converged for the first time in months after a cyclone, widespread rainfall and long weekends have impacted regular seasonal programming.
Weather conditions and climate outlooks have been lacklustre for cattle regions across Queensland, as producers were starting to consider the possible outcomes of a failed wet season. Over the past seven days, however, heavy rainfall has hit much of the east coast, providing much-needed relief to producers.
Prices
In June 2024, MLA reported a stabilisation of the steer market after an indication that much of the volatility of the prior 18 months had subsided due to a confidence-driven market. Generally, in neutral or positive operating conditions, restocker steers will receive a premium over feeder steers, who, in turn, receive a premium over heavy steers. This dynamic plays out as an animal progresses through production systems.
This week, steer prices have converged due to the widespread rain, causing a dramatic shift in the confidence outlook for much of Central Queensland. While some regions have faced extreme conditions that have been detrimental to production, rainfall across a broad area has impacted the market and market outlook positively.
All three steer indicators lifted between 3–7% last week:
- National Restocker Indicator lifted 12¢ to 366¢/kg liveweight (lwt)
- National Feeder Steer Indicator lifted 13¢ to 371¢/kg lwt
- Heavy Steer Indicator lifted 24¢ to 366¢/kg lwt.
These price lifts have largely been due to stock retention and lower throughput in saleyards driven by the rain. Restocker steer yardings have dropped 47%, with heavy steer and feeder steers 6% and 22% below last week, respectively.
On a state-by-state basis, Queensland saw the most dramatic increases in processing, with indicators lifting between 2–15%, as the state was the most impacted by the recent rainfall.
Supply
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred and the intense weather system hitting the east coast could impact cattle supply twofold. The slaughter cattle supply through Queensland dropped off over the past fortnight, as the cyclone caused processor and port closures and distributed demand from finishing markets. Cattle slaughter numbers eased 10% during the cyclone week, however, this had a short-term impact. A lift was seen from processors to volumes not seen since the final week of 2019 with 149,000 head processed.
The medium-term impacts of this weather will likely cause a hold on finished stock, as producers may choose to retain animals to gain more weight.
Long-term effects could be that due to this late-season rain across Central and North Queensland and the Northern Territory, first-round mustering could be delayed, causing a pushback in the supply of weaners and grassfed cattle into processors.
Attribute to: Erin Lukey, MLA Senior Market Information Analyst
