New Zealand sheep production set to fall

The New Zealand sheep flock has been falling consistently for decades, with numbers falling from 39.3 million in 2003 to a record low of 24.4 million in 2023. Over the same period, sheepmeat export volumes have been remarkably stable, due to a combination of falling domestic consumption and steadily increasing carcase weights.

This trend continued in 2023–24. Combined sheep and lamb slaughter lifted 6% to 22.2 million head, and a stock turn-off rate of 91%, well above the 10-year average of 84%. This high stock turn-off rate suggests the flock is currently destocking and that future slaughter will be lower.

Slightly lighter carcase weights resulted in a production lift by 5% to 449,606 tonnes carcase weight equivalent (mt cwe), a slightly smaller lift than the increase in slaughter.

Over 2023–24 increases were seen in sheepmeat exports, with NZ exporting 414,893 mt cwe, 4% more than the previous year. Although there was an increase in exports, the numbers were slightly weaker than expected. This was due largely to lower exports to China, which is the biggest sheepmeat market for New Zealand. Exports to China fell by 14% over 2023–24, meaning the increased production largely went to the United Kingdom, the United States, and New Zealand itself; domestic consumption rose by 12% to 34,713 mt cwe.

Looking forward

Much of the increase in slaughter came from the North Island, which saw dry and hot conditions over summer. Over the past few months, conditions have normalised on the North Island and slaughter has begun to come down; in June 2024 slaughter fell by 16% from last year to 1.1 million head.

As over 90% of New Zealand’s lamb and mutton production is exported, decreases in production have a direct impact on export volumes. The historically small flock and improved seasonal conditions make a rebuild likely, which would reduce competition for Australian lamb and mutton in the global market.