Lamb sales set to hit 13.44 million in the first half of 2023

The latest results from Meat & Livestock Australia and Australian Wool Innovation’s February 2023 Sheep Producer Intentions - PULSE survey were released this week, providing updated estimates of the October 2022 producer lamb sales estimates.

Lamb sales

Results from the February survey indicated that 51% of Australian producers had sold fewer lambs than expected by the end of 2022.

With total lamb sales at the end of last year reaching an estimated 8.75 million, this was 3.09 million head less than the projection estimates from the October 2022 Sheep Intentions survey.

The decline in sales was mostly attributed to weather conditions impacting producers’ ability to achieve the targeted lamb performance required for sale. Lamb condition and weight have been key determinants of market price over the last few months, as buyers have plenty of stock to choose from.

Other reasonings were:

• prices not being strong enough (25%)
• less lambs than expected from the 2022 drop (13%)
• harvest activities being prioritised (12%).

Although labour issues have been felt across the supply chain, therefore restricting processor capacity, only 6% of producers who sold fewer lambs than expected attributed it to processor availability issues.

The ‘holding back’ of lambs at the end of last year resulted in 55% of producers expecting to sell more lambs in the first half of 2023 across most states and all farm sizes.

This translates to an increase of 3.27 million lambs to be sold on top of the estimates from the October survey, or a total of 13.44 million head, in the first half of 2023.

Lamb yardings

Lamb yardings week-to-date for 2023 have increased 15% year-on-year as more lambs come to weight and hit the market after the intensive rebuild period.

Week-on-week comparisons of lamb yardings from the last three years can be seen in the graph below (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Lamb yarding comparisons 2021–23

Source: National Livestock Reporting Service (NLRS)

The PULSE survey indicates that more lambs may hit the market in the coming months. This has the potential to place pricing pressures on the market and increase selectiveness from buyers.

MLA’s February sheep projections forecast the 2023 flock size to reach its largest levels since 2007. This, along with lamb slaughter increasing to 22.6 million head in 2023 and reaching record levels in 2024, is supported by the lift in supply indicated in the survey.

The record production forecast for 2023 is more likely to occur as more lambs come into weight and are being sold. Carcase weights are set to remain historically high and slaughter is increasing.

At the saleyards, buyers can afford to be selective on what lambs to take and which ones to leave, which is leading to premium prices for lambs with weight and good condition.

With feed still available, producers are holding back lambs from last season and will be able to enter the market when their stock reach adequate weights.

Processing space for small stock doesn’t seem to be an issue for producers and suggests that production forecasts are attainable.

Looking forward

The next wave of the Sheep Producer Intentions survey – set to be launched in May – will assess how many ewes producers expect to join for the coming lambing season.

Industry participation in these surveys is vitally important for the visibility of the industry and better decision making on-farm.