Lamb prices 79–158% above previous year
20 September 2024
Key points:
- Current lamb indicator prices are 79–158% above the September 2023 price trough.
- Heavy and Trade Lamb indicators reached an annual peak in August 2024.
- The current market is more stable than the previous 12 months.
The national lamb market today is very different to what it was 12 months ago. Drying conditions and concerns of an emerging El Niño event have impacted market confidence, lifting turn-off through saleyards. Last year, the flock had been rebuilding for three years and was operating at a high base with supply at long-term records. This dynamic caused the most significant price drop in recent years.
The livestock markets have demonstrated resilience in 2024 and are significantly more stable than in the past five years.
During September 2023, lamb indicator prices reached historic lows. The Light Lamb Indicator fell to 287¢/kg carcase weight (cwt), and the Restocker Lamb Indicator fell to 250¢/kg cwt – the lowest nominal price of both indicators since 2007. In the same month, the Trade Lamb Indicator fell to 433¢/kg cwt, and the Heavy Lamb Indicator fell to 451¢/kg cwt, their lowest nominal price since 2014 and 2013.
An extended and severe price drop from record highs also occurred in September 2023 – prices fell between 50% and 75%. In October, much of the country felt relief due to rainfall. The El Niño declaration was removed and prices returned as producers felt comfortable holding onto stock over the summer months.
All lamb indicators entered the new year strong, with the Restocker and Light Lamb indicators fetching their highest price during the year's first sale at 767¢/kg cwt and 685¢/kg cwt, over 160% above the September 2023 bottom. Indicators have remained strong throughout 2024. The Heavy and Trade Lamb indicators climbed to their annual peak in August at 865¢/kg cwt and 878 ¢/kg cwt, over 95% above the September bottom.
Despite current prices not reaching their rebuild records, they remain 79–158% above the same time last year. The current market conditions, when compared to the past five years, show a positive shift towards stability and alignment with seasonal trends, instilling a sense of optimism in the market.
Attribute to: Erin Lukey, MLA Senior Market Information Analyst
