Cattle slaughter rates continue to rise
21 June 2023
Key points:
- May 2023 cattle slaughter numbers significantly improved following the shortened working month of April.
- Total monthly kill numbers were higher by 30% or 97,000 head compared to May 2022.
- Current year-to-date slaughter performance aligns with MLA’s recently released forecasts for an 18% increase in total kill numbers for 2023.
In a previous article published in late March, MLA’s Market Information team forecast that cattle slaughter rates in April would decline sharply (April 2023 being the shortest working month since 2017). The team also predicted that slaughter rates would rebound strongly in May.
The May performance data month-on-month and year-on-year indicates that these expectations for a strong improvement in kill numbers were realised:
May vs April 2023
- Weekly average kill numbers for May rose by 20% or 17,500 head compared to April
- Kill numbers for May were higher by 20% or 70,000 head month-on-month compared to April.
May 2023 vs May 2022
- Weekly average kill numbers for May 2023 were higher by 30% or 24,000 head year-on-year.
- Total kill numbers for May 2023 were higher by 30% or 97,000 head year-on-year.
Evidently, significant increases in throughput occurred during May as processors shook off shortened working weeks and lifted numbers.
Larger numbers of finished stock provided processors with ample choice, although the improvements in May kill numbers were also directly tied to the lack of rain across many parts of the eastern seaboard at the time.
Year-to-date
In year-to-date terms, 2023 volumes are the highest they’ve been since 2020. With this year’s figures 26% or 467,000 head higher than 2022 totals. Compared to 2021 when Australia processed 6 million head of cattle, year-to-date slaughter rates are higher by 11% or 231,000 head.
Importantly, as the calf drops from 2021 and early 2022 reach finished weights, the increasing supply of slaughter-weight stock has been met with continually improving processor capacity. Evidence of this has been seen in recent weeks, with weekly slaughter numbers reaching their highest levels in over three years.
Looking ahead
Based on 2023 performance so far, MLA recently released its Cattle industry projections, which forecast an 18% or 1.1 million head increase in slaughter numbers year-on-year.
Current weekly performance suggests these volumes are attainable.
Despite the outlook for higher slaughter, 2023 figures (if realised) would remain 9% or 689,000 head below the 10-year average.
If processors continue to operate at or around current kill rates and labour issues ease with improved access to international migrants, MLA’s Market Information team forecasts that high volumes of slaughter-weight animals will come to market as the year progresses.
