The RPGOT decision-making process
09 September 2016
Southern NSW-based agricultural consultant Chris Mirams facilitates producer groups under the banner of programs such as Lifetime Ewe Management, MLA's Bred Well Fed Well and BetterBeef Network.
One of the tools he shares with group members and private clients is MLA’s Rainfall to Pasture Growth Outlook Tool (RPGOT).
“Every region is different but I’m based in Albury, so the critical time for my clients and I to be looking at the tool is June, July and August,” Chris said.
“We get together, call up the local weather station on the tool, look at our soil moisture and the three-month outlook for the area, look at what the SOI and other forecasting tools are telling us and, if there’s a consistent message, I say ‘okay, if this outlook comes to fruition, what are you going to do about it?’
“Then it’s time to make a list of things you can do and put some dates against them.”
Write it down
According to Chris, the critical step is “putting pen to paper and actually creating a plan”.
“If it pours with rain and you have to put the plan in the bin, then sobeit, but it’s a good process to go through.”
Suggested strategies
If the forecasts are pointing to a below-average spring, Chris encourages group members to consider plans they can put in place to mitigate adverse events, making the poor season “a speed hump rather than a brick wall”.
“This might mean identifying stock that are going to be sold to see if we can bring those sales forward a little,” he said.
“If our steers are not going to make a particular target market because we’re going to run out of grass, what is Plan B for them? Is there an alternative market?
“If you know you’ll need to purchase hay, secure it before everyone else realises the situation."
And there are just as many decisions to be made if the outlook is pointing to an above-average spring, says Chris.
“Some years the tool will tell us it’s going to be an extraordinary spring, so we need to plan ahead to ensure we capture the benefit of that piece of knowledge,” he said.
“Do we need to buy more stock? Should we put more kilos on the stock we have? Do we make more hay? Do we take on some agistment?
“The key is to use the tool at the most critical time – in this area that’s August – make a plan, then start putting it into action and pulling the management levers as the season develops.
“Forewarned is forearmed.”
Information:
Chris Mirams
T: 0409 205235
E: cjmirams@bigpond.co
Rainfall to Pasture Growth Outlook Tool (RPGOT)
