Keep perspective when it comes to weather declaration

By Jason Strong, Managing Director, MLA

Confidence is contagious. It plays a key role in our decision making and causes us to compare ourselves with our peers.

The past three years of stellar growing conditions led to a surge in confidence within our sector. We saw record saleyard prices for cattle and sheep, and we felt relief following years of devastating drought and bushfires.

In 2023 however, we’ve seen a change in conditions including a massive increase in supply of cattle, sheep and goats and a declaration of El Niño in September.

The El Niño declaration was one of many reasons why the sheep and cattle prices fell this year, but there is no doubt that the impact on confidence was as much of a factor as the potential threat to weather conditions.

However, unlike some who believe that the Bureau of Meteorology went too early or too late when it came to declaring an El Niño, I’m of the opinion it’s how respond to the information and declaration and information that is most important. We have seen enough already to say there have been some knee-jerk reactions to the forecasts provided by The Bureau.

The prospect of El Niño has been discussed since very early in the year, so it was no surprise when the declaration was made back in September. When it got declared, it probably carried more weight in people's thinking than it should have. Absolutely it’s a valuable piece of information but there is more we need to consider and monitor.

If you listen to some of the commentary or perspectives around El Nino it’s not only going to be hotter and drier but it may be never rain again – and that’s really not the case, which we have clearly seen in the last few weeks.

Having the knowledge about what happens or what is potentially happening with our environment are incredibly valuable tools, but over emphasised they have a terribly negative impact on the way that we actually think about the industry and the sentiment.

While weather information is valuable and can help in managing resources and pasture biomass, it’s important to keep perspective.

There is no doubt that we have experienced challenging market conditions this year, but although livestock indicators are down around 50%, many had risen 20-35% in the last 30 days.

Let’s all keep working on making the best information possible readily available but also keep it in perspective to be used as a valuable management tool.

As we move into the summer months, I encourage the industry to maintain its confidence and remember the fundamentals – we are producing high-quality red meat for markets all around the world. The fundamentals of our industry and markets are incredibly strong.